Business Spectator

Has Germany’s bubble finally burst?

As recent economic data shows, the German economy is dramatically slowing. Exports experienced their biggest fall for five years, growth forecasts for the next year have been downgraded by research institutes. It is quite possible that the country is already in recession. These are not just cyclical developments. A much bigger swing is on the way, which will end all talk about the economic powerhouse in the heart of Europe.

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Business Spectator

An acid test for French-German diplomacy

In the past, a French prime minister or president visiting Germany would have not only been greeted with military honours but also been treated with polite interest and respect, maybe even admiration. After 15 years of monetary union, which was meant to bring Europe’s nations closer together, only the diplomatic formalities of this past are left.

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Business Spectator

The sublime irony of Draghi’s dilemma

With all of Europe’s woes, the ECB now looks like the last institution able to move the continent’s economy. But even the ECB cannot achieve what Europe really needs to make it viable in the long run: painful but effective economic reforms.

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Business Spectator

The calm before the eurozone storm

The next stages of the euro crisis are already programmed into the system. It is just a matter of time until the current period of calm ends. And though it is impossible to when we can expect the next euro storm, one thing we can say with certainty: The euro crisis is not over. Far from it.

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Business Spectator

Setting the stage lights for Europe’s second crisis

Published in Business Spectator (Melbourne), 3 July 2014 Last week, I wrote about Angela Merkel’s declining influence in Europe. For a number of domestic and international reasons, the German Chancellor can no longer enforce austerity and economic reforms in the eurozone. She is already past the peak of her power, I concluded. What I did not […]