Inside Politics

The Economic Outlook

Before the Budget, there was widespread agreement around what to expect. It was to be a tight plan for difficult times with not much room for manoeuvre, let alone the opportunity of fiscal stimuli. This forecast was pretty accurate, but hardly anyone seemed to notice.

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Budget 2008: No room for manoeuvre?

Constrained public finances should not be an excuse to surrender to the seemingly unavoidable. It is times like these that ask for the boldest, most courageous solutions. And it is times like these that Parliament should play a greater role in developing ideas for a better economic future. After all, that is what Parliament is all about.

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Sharing the proceeds of what?

“Sharing the proceeds of growth” has always been a nice, if also a little vague formula. It does not set the degree to which growth should be shared between tax cuts and public spending. Unfortunately – and almost by definition – it becomes an impossible task if there is no or only little growth and consequently not much to share.

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A plea to the next Chancellor

We, therefore, believe that any future Chancellor should learn from Mr Brown’s experience and begin his stewardship of the economy with a step that matches Gordon Brown’s courage in giving independence to the Bank of England. This is why we suggest sourcing out both the stewardship of the fiscal rules and the Treasury’s economic forecasting activities to an independent Fiscal Policy Committee (FPC), to be modelled on the MPC. In fact, we think that this is the first policy decision that Gordon Brown’s successor should make.

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