Housing

In Australia, we have so far tried to ameliorate the effects of our unaffordable housing market only with first-time buyers grants and public housing. To make the whole market much more affordable, perhaps we should copy the German model instead.

The strong link between local government finance and housing development fully explains why German and Swiss house prices have been steady for decades. To say it with Sherlock Holmes, improbable as it seems “all other explanations are more improbable still”. If Australians really cared for making housing more affordable in the long run, they should be studying the German and Swiss experiences more closely.

The theory of an Australian housing market bubble shows all signs of a proper religion. There are rituals like the recurring publication of house price indices. There are miracles when house prices rise despite interest rate hikes. Then there are true believers in the theory that Australian house prices are not in any way exaggerated. And finally there are heretics who take great pleasure in questioning just that.

Just like their Australian cousins, most Britons regard home ownership as a good in itself. It is thought to be a panacea for all sorts of social ills, a tool for regenerating run-down areas, a safe investment for retirement, and a key to building a stable democracy. You can spend the whole week watching all sorts of ‘property porn’ shows on British TV that tell you how to build, buy, renovate or sell your home. Politicians regularly talk about it in terms of ‘aspiration’ and promise help for first-timers to step onto the property ladder. Yet there is a dark side to Britain’s property mania.

Price increases in any other market are called inflation, but when house prices go up the market is said to be healthy. But house price increases are only shifting wealth from non-owners to owners. Rising houses prices never create wealth. In fact, they make tenants wishing to buy property worse off.

Australia’s addiction to the property market needs to stop if we care about housing affordability. And if we care about the level of private debt, then we need to make saving a much more attractive option for young Australians.

What sounds like a paradoxical experience may not be so much of a paradox after all. House prices, quality of life and economic growth are very much interlinked in Britain’s recent history, and it is not always easy to disentangle the three. However, if we want to understand why they are connected, it is necessary to subject them to an economic analysis, and that means analysing the way Britain’s built environment has been planned.

For policymakers, the lesson is clear. If they are concerned about housing boom and bust cycles, they have to quash the expectation that house prices will continue to rise. To do that, they need to examine property markets with long records of house price stability, and learn from them how to ensure that when more housing is needed, more can be built.