Italy

After the crisis year of 2020, the next 12 months will decide if Italy can get its economy, financial system and public finances under control again.

No matter how much fiscal support he will receive, it will do nothing to reverse Italy’s productivity trajectory. And for as long as Italy remains part of the Eurozone, none of the above issues can be resolved.

If Italy fails – and there is a temptation to write ‘When’ instead of ‘If’ – it will be a catastrophe not just for Italy. It will be the end of the Euro as Europe’s currency. It will be the return of the euro crisis on steroids.

Now that the Greek banks have re-opened, the third bailout package is on the way and something vaguely resembling normalcy is returning to Greece, we can finally deal with other things again: the euro crisis, for example.

The next stages of the euro crisis are already programmed into the system. It is just a matter of time until the current period of calm ends. And though it is impossible to when we can expect the next euro storm, one thing we can say with certainty: The euro crisis is not over. Far from it.

As government debt in the European periphery becomes a riskier investment, the yields on periphery government yields are not going up as one might expect. On the contrary: they are falling.

Just when many commentators thought the euro crisis was over, Italy’s political earthquake has put it back on the agenda. The problem is not so much that it is practically impossible to form a stable government with different majorities in the two houses of parliament. The real issue is that the anti-austerity forces in Italy have won a large majority.

Because of all his personal failings, it is unlikely the Italians will give Berlusconi a fourth chance to lead their country. But he will at least trigger a debate on the benefits of Italy’s continued eurozone membership, which may well end up with a divorce.