Debt is the least of Italy’s problems

No matter how much fiscal support he will receive, it will do nothing to reverse Italy’s productivity trajectory. And for as long as Italy remains part of the Eurozone, none of the above issues can be resolved. [...]

A catastrophe that will cripple Italy

If Italy fails – and there is a temptation to write ‘When’ instead of ‘If’ – it will be a catastrophe not just for Italy. It will be the end of the Euro as Europe’s currency. It will be the return of the euro crisis on steroids. [...]

Now for the next euro crisis

Now that the Greek banks have re-opened, the third bailout package is on the way and something vaguely resembling normalcy is returning to Greece, we can finally deal with other things again: the euro crisis, for example. [...]

The calm before the eurozone storm

The next stages of the euro crisis are already programmed into the system. It is just a matter of time until the current period of calm ends. And though it is impossible to when we can expect the next euro storm, one thing we can say with certainty: The euro crisis is not over. Far from it. [...]

Why the markets got it wrong on Europe

As government debt in the European periphery becomes a riskier investment, the yields on periphery government yields are not going up as one might expect. On the contrary: they are falling. [...]

An Italian hell

Just when many commentators thought the euro crisis was over, Italy’s political earthquake has put it back on the agenda. The problem is not so much that it is practically impossible to form a stable government with different majorities in the two houses of parliament. The real issue is that the anti-austerity forces in Italy have won a large majority. [...]

Berlusconi battles towards an Italian liberation

Because of all his personal failings, it is unlikely the Italians will give Berlusconi a fourth chance to lead their country. But he will at least trigger a debate on the benefits of Italy’s continued eurozone membership, which may well end up with a divorce. [...]

The Italian omen

Europe’s problems remain painfully real. But it was wrong to believe that they would inevitably lead to a cataclysmic crisis. It now looks as if it’s going to be much worse. There is never going to be a solution, just a slow, ongoing decline. Not a purgatory from which there is an eventual escape route to heaven, but a Dantean inferno with its famous inscription above the gates: ‘Lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch’entrate’ – ‘Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.’ [...]