Published in Insights, The New Zealand Initiative’s newsletter, 9 June 2023
Taking an unusual step, Foodstuffs North Island addressed the escalating retail crime rate in the country in a media release this week.
The retailer reported an increase of 38% in retail crime incidents between February and April 2023 compared to the same period last year. Shoplifting alone saw a staggering rise of 57% over the past 12 months.
Increased crime across New Zealand is part of a broader wave of lawlessness. A total of 516 ram raids were reported by the police in 2022, and gang membership appears to have increased (though precise numbers are naturally hard to ascertain).
The Government has responded poorly to these alarming trends. Fog cannon subsidies are unlikely to reduce crime significantly.
To tackle crime effectively, a thorough strategy grounded in reliable evidence is necessary. Research suggests that crime reduction requires a multifaceted approach that goes beyond traditional criminal justice interventions.
For example, University of Ottawa criminologist Irvin Waller emphasised the social issues leading to crime. In his book Less Law, More Order: The Truth About Reducing Crime Waller argued that tackling family violence and insufficient job training are more effective than incarceration or harsher penalties.
In their comprehensive review, Reducing Crime: The Effectiveness of Criminal Justice Interventions, Amanda Perry and her co-authors reviewed over 100 studies examining the effectiveness of criminal justice interventions in reducing crime. They highlighted the importance of evaluating interventions based on their costs and benefits.
Most recently, Jennifer Doleac summarised the empirical evidence on how to intervene with existing offenders to reduce criminal behaviour in the Journal of Economic Literature. Among her findings was strong evidence that increasing the probability of punishment reduces recidivism across a wide range of offenders.
Contrary to such empirical findings, the Government has primarily engaged in wishful thinking. Its simplistic goal was to lower the prison population – and indeed, it has fallen substantially over the past five years.
That would have been a positive outcome had it resulted from a reduction in crime. Unfortunately, the opposite is the case.
Considering the current crime wave, a return to evidence-based policies is overdue. By focusing on what works, tracking progress, and rewarding success, New Zealand can break the cycle of crime and create safer communities.
The cry for help by Foodstuffs North Island is a stark reminder of the urgent need for evidence-based public policy.
