Published in Insights, The New Zealand Initiative’s newsletter, 13 October 2023
With the New Zealand election just a day away, the closeness of the race is astonishing. It is especially so when one considers the social and economic turmoil the country faces.
Opinion polls have consistently told us for months that about two-thirds of the population believes the country is going in the wrong direction. The logical expectation would be a strong push for change. And yet, the same polls suggest a tight race.
National and ACT had an opportunity to capitalise on widespread dissatisfaction with the state of the country. Judging by the polls, their campaigns have not achieved that.
A major factor would have been their conflicting and sometimes contradictory messages leaving voters confused.
National, for example, initially refused to discuss possible arrangements with New Zealand First. Then, just two weeks before the election, they changed their tune and opened the door to such discussions.
But that was immediately followed by more reservations about working with them to the point of speculating about a second election.
Winston Peters was the only beneficiary of all these speculations. He probably could not believe his luck.
The opposition’s inconsistent messaging has been exacerbated by the media’s focus on personalities, coalitions, and various sideshows. This came at the expense of meaningful policy discussions.
As a result, the New Zealand electorate has been short-changed; we have been denied the deep debates about the country’s future and the policies that might genuinely improve it.
As voters prepare to go to the ballot box (if they have not voted early), two likely outcomes emerge: a National-led government, somehow supported by both ACT and New Zealand First; or a third-term Labour-led government, this time supported by the Greens and Te Pati Māori.
While the latter scenario seems much less likely based on current polling, it cannot be ruled out. It only takes a few percentage points to swing to Labour and the Greens for Chris Hipkins to keep the keys to the Beehive.
At this stage, the most surprising aspect of the 2023 New Zealand election is how close it is.
Given the country’s many challenges and the degree of public dissatisfaction, one would have anticipated a political earthquake followed by a shift in direction.
Instead, New Zealanders are left with uncertain choices at a time when a clear mandate for genuine reforms across policy areas such as education, law and order and the public service are sorely needed.
Over the coming weeks, we will find out if we will at least get some of these reforms.
