Euro crisis

Research reports

Trans-Atlantic Fiscal Follies: The Sequel

07/12/2011
In 2009, CIS Research Fellows Robert Carling and Dr Oliver Marc Hartwich predicted sovereign debt troubles on both sides of the Atlantic at a CIS event called ‘Trans-Atlantic Fiscal Follies.’ In August 2011, they were joined by CIS Research Fellow Adam Creighton to discuss the future for those countries buckling under their sovereign debt obligations. How much worse is it going to get? And does it have to get worse before it gets better? Will the dollar survive as the lead currency? Will the euro survive at all? Will gold continue to rise? And what’s the endgame of government debt?

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Business Spectator

Merkozy’s palliative care pact

28/11/2011
If newspaper reports over the weekend are to be believed, German chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Nicolas Sarkozy are preparing a new eurozone stability treaty. Such news would almost be funny were it not for the seriousness of the euro crisis.

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Business Spectator

Europe’s hidden doomsday machine

22/11/2011
What Europe is still discussing and Germany is vehemently resisting – the transformation into a fiscal liability union – has long been achieved through the Target backdoor. Brace yourself for the day when Europe finally wakes up to its forgotten fourth crisis.

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Business Spectator

Will Mr Nobody crash Europe?

15/11/2011
When Germany’s political Boxing Day comes on December 17, there could be some hidden surprises among the presents which may spoil a few politicians’ Christmas breaks. A hitherto obscure German backbencher now threatens to thwart the EU’s plans to save the euro.

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The Australian

Europe’s social failure

12/11/2011
Capital markets are not loquacious storytellers. They condense the world into simple numbers. For this reason, the surge in Greek, Italian and Spanish bond yields could be mistaken for a mere technicality, a simple recalibration between the forces of demand and supply that happens in markets every day.

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Business Spectator

Going long on European deja vu

03/11/2011
Here we are again, just a week after a supposed breakthrough for Europe, and the crisis is getting worse. First there was the alarming auction of Italian bonds last Friday; then the whole deal reached last week was effectively put on hold by the Greek prime minister on Tuesday. Expect more bad news in coming weeks and months as European growth stalls and ratings agencies will have another look at Italy, Belgium and France.

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Uncategorised

Europe’s forgotten lessons of history

30/10/2011
The rise and fall of the Euro is just another chapter in the long history of monetary unions in Europe. The Euro was not the first attempt to unite different European economies and countries by a monetary framework. And it will not be the first such currency to fail.

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Business Spectator

Unravelling the Greek basket case

20/10/2011
After the turbulent monetary history of Greece, it was surprising (to say the least) how easily Greece managed to become part of the eurozone. Either Greece had fundamentally changed its whole economic system as grown over two centuries overnight or Greece’s European partners had not learned their lessons from history.

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Business Spectator

Stepping stones to an EU inferno

05/10/2011
Merkel won last week’s debate by making a mockery out of democracy, but she lost leeway for any further bailout packages. Meanwhile, the German public has reached the end of its tether with politicians, Greece and the euro.

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