Month: November 2011

What Europe is still discussing and Germany is vehemently resisting – the transformation into a fiscal liability union – has long been achieved through the Target backdoor. Brace yourself for the day when Europe finally wakes up to its forgotten fourth crisis.

When Germany’s political Boxing Day comes on December 17, there could be some hidden surprises among the presents which may spoil a few politicians’ Christmas breaks. A hitherto obscure German backbencher now threatens to thwart the EU’s plans to save the euro.

Capital markets are not loquacious storytellers. They condense the world into simple numbers. For this reason, the surge in Greek, Italian and Spanish bond yields could be mistaken for a mere technicality, a simple recalibration between the forces of demand and supply that happens in markets every day.

The choice left to Europe’s economically illiterate politicians is this: will they finally admit the euro cannot work for Greece (and other periphery countries)? Or will they realise it only after burning another few hundred billion?

The Chinese know that any money they dedicate to Europe would be a highly risky engagement. They realise that Europe’s growth inertia, debt dynamics and demographic change are condemning the Europeans to decades of slow decline. And they are fully aware that Europe’s social model is finished.

After World War II, Europe became a continent of great expectations and little ambitions. For decades, governments had promised their peoples a life free of worry. Free education and healthcare, good infrastructure, a social-security safety net, lifelong jobs in the public sector followed by generous pensions – that’s what Europeans expected from the state.

Here we are again, just a week after a supposed breakthrough for Europe, and the crisis is getting worse. First there was the alarming auction of Italian bonds last Friday; then the whole deal reached last week was effectively put on hold by the Greek prime minister on Tuesday. Expect more bad news in coming weeks and months as European growth stalls and ratings agencies will have another look at Italy, Belgium and France.