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A new modesty for economists

Economists should take the time to ask themselves what they can learn from the events of the past three years. If they were honest with themselves, they would come to the conclusion that many of them had been too optimistic about their abilities to predict the future with certainty. They would have to confess that the world is too messy a place to be expressed in models of ‘general equilibrium’ or ‘perfect competition.’

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Australiens Platzangst

Wahlkämpfe sind selten die beste Gelegenheit für nüchterne Bestandesaufnahmen. Australien ist da keine Ausnahme. Nach dem Sturz von Premierminister Kevin Rudd infolge einer Palastrevolte Ende Juni benötigte seine Nachfolgerin Julia Gillard dringend ein Feld zur Profilierung bei den anstehenden Neuwahlen. Sie fand es in der Furcht vor einem weiteren Bevölkerungszuwachs. Seither wiederholt sie mantrahaft, dass sie sich kein grösseres Australien wünsche, sondern ein «nachhaltiges».

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A simple idea for our ever more complicated bureaucracy

Once we figure out the actual cost of red tape, we can issue red tape certificates to government departments. And here is the trick: Just like environmental pollution certificates, red tape certificates for government departments would be set at levels lower than their current level of pollution.

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Book review: Soccernomics

Given the sad, unworldly image of economics (or ‘the dismal science,’ as it is often referred to), it is refreshing to see that there are still economists out there who have something worthwhile to say. Even if it is only about soccer.

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Review: The New Vichy Syndrome

Dalrymple’s book is strangely self-contradictory. He mourns the cultural, social, political and economic decline of Europe while questioning the severity of the two fundamental causes of that decline. The New Vichy Syndrome is still worth reading. Only a brilliant thinker like Dalrymple could manage to write a seriously flawed book that still offers scores of profound insights to provoke further thought and reflection.

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Der neue Untergang Roms – Europa vor der Demografiekrise

Generationen von Schulkindern haben gelernt, dass die europäische Geschichte mit Athen und Rom beginnt. In Zukunft wird ihnen ebenfalls beigebracht werden, dass an diesen Orten auch das Ende Europas seinen Anfang nahm. Denn Europa steht nicht nur vor der Schuldenkrise, sondern auch vor der Demografie-Krise.

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Perpetuating the Canberra reflex

In terms of its land mass, Australia is the sixth largest country on earth. The distances between the state capitals are enormous and travelling between places within the states by means other than air transport can take many hours. Given these spatial characteristics, perhaps the most surprising feature of Australia’s political culture is what could be called ‘the Canberra reflex’. No problem is too local, no issue too miniscule that one could not find a pundit to argue that they would best be handled by the national government.

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What if …?

Relying on ‘oh sh#*!’ moments is a bad way to make public policy reforms – but this is increasingly how it happens. Politicians are afraid to speak up, our parliaments and party organisations have lost their policy grunt, and our media caters to shorter attention spans and celebrities. It’s not a good recipe for long term ideas about how we live, work, and maintain our freedoms. ‘What If?’ offers the answers to questions that others are too afraid to tackle. 30 writers have climbed the fence into the paddock of Australian sacred cows – and tipped a whole lot over.

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