Population and migration

A ferry passing the Sydney Opera House
Points of viewMigration works when countries choose their migrants well, help them belong and build enough homes for everyone.

I have been a migrant three times, to Britain, Australia and New Zealand, and I am generally in favour of open borders. I have also seen what happens when a country admits people without asking how they will fit in, and when it lets a housing shortage set its immigration policy.

Core beliefs

Choose migrants carefully, and integration follows

Australia’s multiculturalism works because Australia selects its migrants. For decades, Germany and Britain did not. Migrants who arrived with poor language skills and few qualifications too often ended up dependent on the welfare state.

Ethnic diversity can work. It works best when a country chooses migrants who are willing and able to integrate.

Read: Selection, Migration and Integration: Why Multiculturalism Works in Australia (And Fails in Europe) (report, 2011)

Do not let a broken housing market set migration policy

When New Zealand’s house prices soared, many blamed migrants. Cutting migration would have treated a symptom. The underlying problem was a planning system that stopped homes being built for anyone.

Read: Housing New Zealand’s migrants (Insights, 2016)

A growing population needs planning

Australia’s population grows because its economy is strong and its society confident. In 2011, Jessica Brown and I argued that population growth is neither a goal in itself nor a threat. What matters is whether cities, councils and infrastructure keep up.

Read: Why a Growing Australia is Nothing to Fear (report with Jessica Brown, 2011)

Ageing is the slow crisis

Treasury has warned for 20 years that an ageing population will create spending pressures the tax base cannot carry. On current policies, net debt heads towards 200 percent of GDP by 2065, and New Zealand Superannuation alone rises from 5.1 percent of GDP to around 8 percent.

I grew up in Germany, where politicians received the same warnings for decades and ignored them. Germany’s pension system now absorbs a growing share of the federal budget.

Read: Treasury warning never grows old – unlike boomers (Newsroom, 2025)

Integration is about values as well as jobs

In 2015, Germany greeted refugees with a “culture of welcome”. I did not share the optimism, even as a migrant who favours open borders. Integration requires newcomers to accept the principles of the society they join, and some who arrived after 2015 did not.

Read: How Europe’s ‘culture of welcome’ backfired (ZB Plus, 2023)

How I came to this

I left Germany for London in 2004, moved to Sydney in 2008 and settled in Wellington in 2012. Each move taught me how much newcomers depend on the rules of the country that admits them.

At the Centre for Independent Studies, I joined Australia’s argument about how big the country should grow. With Jessica Brown, I modelled its demographic future in Populate and Perish?, and in my own monograph I compared Australia’s selective migration with Europe’s failures.

Then Europe’s migration crisis of 2015 put my own country to the test. Germany opened its borders with good intentions and little planning, and the backlash still shapes German politics.

  1. 2004I leave Germany for London.
  2. 2008I move to Sydney and join the Centre for Independent Studies.
  3. 2010Populate and Perish?, with Jessica Brown, models Australia’s demographic future.
  4. 2011Selection, Migration and Integration explains why multiculturalism works in Australia and fails in Europe.
  5. 2012I settle in Wellington.
  6. 2015Germany opens its borders to refugees under its “culture of welcome”.
  7. 2016I argue that New Zealand should fix housing rather than blame migrants.
  8. 2025Treasury repeats its warning about the cost of an ageing population.

What happened next

In Germany, failed integration turned into politics. The AfD grew on the back of the migration debate, and in September 2026 it won nearly 44 percent of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt.

In New Zealand, National plans to keep the superannuation age at 65 until 2044. Every year of delay makes the eventual adjustment larger.

My view of migration has not changed. A country that chooses well, integrates well and builds enough homes will find that a growing population makes it richer.

Reports

Cover of Populate and Perish?Populate and Perish?2010 Cover of Selection, Migration and IntegrationSelection, Migration and Integration2011 Why a Growing Australia is Nothing to Fear2011

In my own words

“It implies that we should let our dysfunctional housing market determine migration policy settings. But that is putting the cart before the horse.”

Housing New Zealand’s migrants, Insights, 12 August 2016

“I grew up watching German politicians receive similar warnings and ignore every single one of them.”

Treasury warning never grows old – unlike boomers, Newsroom, 30 September 2025

“Population growth is not something to strive for in and of itself, but it is not to be feared either.”

Why a Growing Australia is Nothing to Fear, with Jessica Brown, 28 September 2011

Start here

Speeches · 30 July 2016

A Human Tsunami?

Maybe Merkel meant well. But that is the best you can say about her refugee policy.

Everything I have written on this

Show all 82 pieces on population and migration

2026

2025

2024

2023

2021

2020

2019

2017

2016

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

2010

2008