Angela Merkel

It is debatable whether Merkel actually managed to negotiate good deals for her country, but at least it always appeared as if she was able to dictate her will in Europe. Not anymore.

What is democracy? Well, usually democracy is when the people vote in an election and the winner then happens to form a government. It is as simple as that. And what is European Union democracy? It is when the people vote in an election and, regardless of the outcome, German chancellor Angela Merkel decides on the next president of the European Commission

In the coming months and years, President Obama and his administration will have a lot of work to do if they want to restore trust with their European partners. And they will have to show even more commitment to make them believe they could be friends.

There may come a day in the not too distant future when Merkel will rue the day she failed to resuscitate her moribund liberal coalition partner. The rest of Europe, however, can relax. Triumphant Merkel is not nearly as powerful as she now seems.

Most followers of the euro crisis agree that the German elections, to be held on September 22, will be a watershed moment. Everything that had been put on hold in the crisis will finally be allowed to happen once Angela Merkel has been returned to power.

By announcing the next Greek package before the election, Schäuble is manoeuvring Germany into his much preferred position of actively supporting closer European integration.

The Bundesbank and the German constitutional court are confronting and challenging the ECB, and such a conflict cannot just be moderated away. Eventually, the Germans will need to come clear on where they want to take the eurozone.

Surprisingly, readers of this column often ask me: who is going to win this year’s German federal election? I find it so surprising because the result, just about nine months ahead of election day, already looks like a foregone conclusion.