Russia

Global security is at a critical juncture. Amid increasing tensions, Europe faces potential conflicts with Russia and a reduced US security commitment. Yet Europe’s defense capacity remains lacking.

As 2023 ends, the initial unity in the West against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine fades due to internal divisions and multiple global crises. The future looks uncertain.

Far-right parties across Europe support Putin’s aggressive policies, forming financial and ideological ties. Their rise poses a threat to Western democracies and Ukraine.

Yes, “harder years, tough years” are coming for Germany. But they could be all the harder because the country’s leadership still is not ready to acknowledge its past failures or to apply the lessons to its future policy settings.

We should let go of the illusion that normality will return once the war in Ukraine is over. Russia’s war on Western democracy preceded its military aggression on Ukraine. It will continue as long as the Russian leadership remains in power.

The strategic implications of Putin’s war against Ukraine keep evolving as the conflict enters its fourth month. As yet another unintended consequence, it has broken the anti-EU axis between Warsaw and Budapest.

As Putin’s soldiers fight in eastern Ukraine, he is also involved in a battle much further west. Tragically, that western battle may even go his way.

The more things change, the more they stay the same. This is how Germany’s foreign and defence policy appears these days.